There is a number that keeps appearing in earnings calls, infrastructure announcements, and government industrial strategies, and it keeps getting bigger. A hundred billion here. A quarter of a trillion there. The figures attached to AI investments have become so large and have been repeated so often that they no longer seem to elicit a reaction from most investors.
The AI boom is just the next iteration of the all-too familiar story. A disruptive new technology comes out, and companies become willing to spend seemingly infinite amounts to try and come out on top. Valuations are high, capital expenditure is enormous, and the eventual winners should in-theory generate extraordinary returns. However, the deeper story is about concentration.
For most of the twentieth century, the politics of energy was a story about oil. While that story is not yet over, it has become much more complicated. We are currently living through the 4th industrial revolution, with massive AI-driven capital expenditures fueling innovation and competition around the world and across all industries.
The U.S., long the undisputed anchor of the global financial system, has entered a period of political volatility and policy unpredictability that has caused investors around the world to reassess many of their long-held beliefs about the perceived sanctuary of American capital markets.