Every year, Canada Day invites us to reflect on where we've come from and where we're headed. This year feels a little different.
Threats from our southern neighbour on becoming the 51st state have catalyzed conversations around sovereignty and national identity. In the months since, Canada responded in kind, stepping up to the world stage and stoking the pride and patriotism of its citizens. Yet across Alberta, separation sentiments have moved from the margins into the mainstream.
Many Albertans have genuine frustrations and concerns around energy policy, fiscal fairness, affordability, and the province’s relationship with Ottawa. Too often, people here feel unheard despite the enormous contribution Alberta has made to Canada's prosperity. The grievances are real and can very well show up in a “protest vote” to put pressure on the government.
All that to say, separation is not the solution. Such a decision carries enormous consequences and is already having a negative impact on our city.
Last week, Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, discussed how the growing economic uncertainty and potential business migration could contract the provincial economy by $62 billion a year, with nearly half of local chamber businesses indicating they might leave if Alberta separates. “Our business community is sending a clear message — separation has moved beyond a theoretical debate to having tangible effects on business confidence and decision-making. This discussion is not only about the movement of capital to other jurisdictions viewed as more predictable and stable, but also about how the movement of businesses, jobs and labour would permanently damage our economy. If a formal referendum process moves forward, the very foundations that have made Alberta one of Canada’s strongest economies – including a predictable, business-friendly environment – will be in jeopardy.”
Premier Danielle Smith has projected that independence could saddle the province with up to $400 billion in initial separation costs and $50 billion in annual overhead. That hefty figure includes Alberta's portion of the national debt, NATO commitments, and various new startup expenses required to build a national government (think everything from post offices to employment insurance to banking regulation).
Albertans, and Canadians, should have an honest debate about the plan and future of the province. People deserve to understand the risks and practical considerations around trade agreements, pipelines and market access, oil boom-bust cycles, investment and credit ratings, stock exchanges, currency and inflation, healthcare and infrastructure funding, job security and affordability, house prices and property rights, pensions and CPP, Crown treaties, taxation, immigration and passports, border controls, federal assets and debt, tourism and national parks, and the countless complex legal and constitutional questions that come with creating a new country.
The 1980 and 1995 separation referendums in Quebec had a monumental impact on the province and our nation. Even though the vote ultimately didn’t go through, they still experienced a flight of capital and talent and the loss of future opportunities. All the big financial institutions and corporations relocated their headquarters from Montreal to Toronto, and the province was never again the same. We cannot afford to make the same mistakes.
History reminds us that prolonged constitutional uncertainty can reshape investment decisions for years. Once businesses and talented people leave, they are not always quick to return. Capital quite simply follows confidence.
As wealth managers, we work with families and business owners making long-term decisions. They are planning retirements, building or transitioning their businesses, and leaving legacies for the next generation. Regardless of where you stand politically, this debate should concern you. It challenges our identity and forces us to ask what kind of future we want our children and grandchildren to inherit.
Our province has always been defined by builders, entrepreneurs, innovators, and people willing to work harder than anyone else. Even in our office, people from across the country and the world have chosen Alberta because they believed this was a place where hard work could build a better life. We know there are many in this city and province who care deeply about our country, something seen in the 400,000+ Forever Canada signatures.
Canada has never been perfect. It has always been a work in progress. Now, more than ever, we shouldn’t resign ourselves to political disengagement. This moment requires civic participation to make the case for a stronger federation that better serves every province. Those conversations are strongest when they happen around a table than across a border.
BOTTOM LINE
This October, Albertans will be asked whether the province should pursue a referendum on sovereignty.
We encourage every eligible voter to understand the issues, consider the long-term consequences, engage respectfully with those who disagree, and most importantly, vote.
On this Canada Day, we celebrate a country that has given generations of Canadians extraordinary opportunities. And we remain optimistic that our best future is one we build together.
Forever Canada.
Markets are uncertain. Your strategy shouldn't be.
Find confidence during confusing times by meeting with one of our wealth professionals.